NASCAR Cup Series playoffs: Breaking down 16-driver field

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The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs of three-race rounds leading into a one-race championship requires drivers to be great one day or good on three days or just not beat themselves.

That’s especially true in the opening round that starts Sunday night at Darlington Raceway, followed by events at Kansas and Bristol.

The four drivers who don’t win a round and have the fewest points are eliminated after each of the first three race rounds. The second round consists of Texas, Talladega and the Charlotte road course. The third round is Las Vegas, Homestead and Martinsville. The four drivers remaining vie for the title at Phoenix with the driver who finishes the best in that race declared the champion.

Points are reset for each of the first three rounds with playoff points earned during the season making the difference at the start. William Byron and regular-season champion Martin Truex Jr. are tied atop the leaderboard.

“I feel like we can win every single race we go to,” Truex said. “That’s what the playoffs are all about. You’ve got to be up front. You’ve got to lead laps.

“You’ve got to be a contender week in and week out to get to that final four. So hopefully we can have 10 great weeks and put it all together.”

There are six tracks in the playoffs that drivers have already visited this year — Darlington, Kansas, Talladega, Las Vegas, Martinsville and Phoenix. 

Here is the outlook for drivers in the playoffs, who not only need to worry about beating each other but also knowing that the rest of the non-playoff field still shows up every weekend — and now have nothing to lose:

Just don’t collapse

1. William Byron (2036 pts; +29 on the current cutoff)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet 

Byron had a series-leading five victories this year and he would have an edge on everyone if not for a playoff points penalty (five points for a technical infraction earlier this year). He has never made the final four but he has three wins at playoff tracks this year, including at the championship site at Phoenix. Byron and crew chief Rudy Fugle might have the best chemistry of any driver-crew chief in the garage.

2. Martin Truex Jr. (2036; +29 on cutoff)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota

The regular-season points champion did not make the playoffs last year. The playoff tracks have been good to him this year but not great, and he can’t afford a step backward. He knows how to navigate the playoffs — he has made the championship race five times.

3. Denny Hamlin (2025; +18 on cutoff)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota 

Hamlin won at Kansas earlier this year and will be a favorite there again in the first round, a round that also includes Darlington and Bristol. Whether the driver who has had an incredible career but missing a title wins the championship this year could come down to the second rounds and whether he can get it done at Phoenix. It was Phoenix where he was running relatively well but then pinched Ross Chastain into the wall on the final lap.

Just no bad race

4. Chris Buescher (2021; +14)
RFK Racing No. 17 Ford 

There might not be a hotter driver on the circuit than Buescher, who has won three of the past five races. He is the defending winner of the Bristol night race, so he will have a good feeling about the first round. Then the second round includes Talladega and the Charlotte road course, two tracks where he can thrive. His challenge could be the third round as he was 21st at Vegas and 14th at Martinsville earlier this year.

5. Kyle Busch (2019; +12)
Richard Childress Racing No. 8 Chevrolet

Busch makes his first appearance as a driver for Richard Childress Racing. Busch, Hamlin and Kevin Harvick are the only drivers to make the playoffs every year since the format changed in 2014. He has made it to the championship race five times, but not since his 2019 title. You could easily see him making the championship as well as being knocked out in the first round, as he was last year.

6. Kyle Larson (2017; +10)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet 

Larson has “just” two wins this year (three counting the all-star race) and all those wins came on short tracks. He can look at the playoffs and know some of his best tracks are ahead of him. He was second at Kansas, second at Vegas, won Martinsville and finished fourth at Phoenix. The second round could be his biggest challenge. The third round, though, is totally in his wheelhouse with Homestead (where Larson won a year ago) and Martinsville.

7. Christopher Bell (2014; +7)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota

Bell’s only win this year came on the Bristol dirt, so he is looking for his first win on asphalt (or concrete) as he heads into the playoffs. He has just one top-5 at the six playoff tracks where they have raced earlier this year. He still feels confident, though, that he can make a repeat trip to the championship race.

Just no mistakes

8. Ross Chastain (2011; +4)
Trackhouse Racing No. 1 Chevrolet 

Chastain has had an inconsistent summer, and the stats don’t exactly bode well for him — he has just one top-10 (a fifth at Kansas) at the six playoff tracks where they have raced this year. He has just one top-10 finish and two top-15 finishes in the nine races since his win at Nashville. He will need to get a strong start at Darlington, where he was 29th in the spring.

9. Brad Keselowski (2010; +3)
RFK Racing No. 6 Ford

Keselowski rides an 88-race winless streak into the playoffs, but he finished the regular season fifth in the standings. The playoff tracks do play out well for him, though, at least in the first two rounds. The third round could be a challenge — he was 17th at Vegas and 24th at Martinsville earlier this year.

10. Tyler Reddick (2009; +2)
23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota

Reddick has been consistently quite good but not great this year and the fact he doesn’t have many playoff points will require him to execute flawlessly — and frankly, that hasn’t been the team’s strength. He was 22nd at Darlington in the spring but he’ll be quick to remind you that he was involved in a wreck with 13 laps to go while running in the top-five and finished second and third there last year.

11. Joey Logano (2008; +1)
Team Penske No. 22 Ford

The defending Cup champion has a knack of coming through in the clutch. He’ll need to do that plenty of times in the playoffs and take advantage of his strength on short tracks and road courses while getting the most out of what he has on the intermediate tracks, where Penske has struggled this year.

12. Ryan Blaney (2008; +1)
Team Penske No. 12 Ford

Blaney was ninth at Darlington in the spring and if he can repeat that performance, he should set himself up well for the rest of the first round. If he can get out of the first round, he has to feel optimistic — he was second at Talladega earlier this year, 13th at Vegas, seventh at Martinsville and second at Phoenix.

Just overachieve

13. Michael McDowell (2007; -1)
Front Row Motorsports No. 34 Ford

McDowell did not finish in the top 10 at any of the playoff tracks this year. He could make a run in the playoffs, but they will have to do it by a mix of execution, earning a healthy amount of stage points and likely some mistakes from others. 

14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2005; -3)
JTG Daugherty Racing No. 47 Chevrolet

Stenhouse won the Daytona 500 to lock himself in the playoffs and finished 17th in the point standings in the regular season, in part because of the early wreck in the season finale at Daytona. Much like McDowell, he has good-but-not-great results at playoff tracks and likely will need a little help to advance.

15. Kevin Harvick (2004; -4)
Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Ford

Harvick’s final season was one where he had some chances to win early in the season that didn’t materialize, including a second-place finish at Darlington with a damaged car in an overtime finish. He and his team will have a lot of fight in them. Whether that will be enough is still to be determined. But if he can get to Phoenix, he was one of the top cars there in the spring with a fifth-place finish.

16. Bubba Wallace (2000; -5)
23XI Racing No. 23 Toyota

Making the playoffs for the first time in six seasons is something that any driver would relish. Whether that emotional ride has sapped all the energy from Wallace and the team will be tested in the opening round.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass, and sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass.

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