2023 NASCAR GEICO 500 at Talladega odds, predictions, pick

Ross Chastain seeks to defend his title at the GEICO 500 as NASCAR heads to Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, Alabama, for Sunday’s race. This weekend’s big race starts at 3 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports App.

As Chastain attempts to defend his crown, Ryan Blaney will be on a mission to continue his own Talladega magic. Blaney won the GEICO 500 in 2020. He also finished second at the YellaWood 500 in October and won the 1000Bulbs.com 500 in 2019. Blaney is one of the pre-race favorites, currently sitting at +1000 at FOX Bet.

But if Brad Keselowski (+1400) has his say, he’ll be the driver to come out on top. Keselowski has six Talladega wins on his resume, most recently at the 2021 GEICO 500. He followed that by taking second at the YellaWood 500 at Talladega on Oct. 4, 2021.

Another driver to keep an eye on is defending NASCAR Cup Series champion and co-favorite Joey Logano (+1000 at FOX Bet). Can he back up his second-place showing at the Daytona 500 on Feb. 19 by taking the checkered flag Sunday? 

Logano, who also won the Cup Series title in 2018, has three career wins at Talladega (including the 2018 GEICO) and seven other top-10 finishes at Talladega. 

[RELATED: Bob Pockrass‘ NASCAR Power Rankings]

Who will be the next driver to tame the 2.66-mile tri-oval, NASCAR’s longest non-road course track that also has the highest banking in the turns (33 degrees)? 

Here are the odds and an expert’s pick to win the race (odds from FOX Bet*) 

Ryan Blaney +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Joey Logano +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Ross Chastain +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Chase Elliott +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Brad Keselowski +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
William Byron +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Denny Hamlin +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Christoper Bell +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Kyle Larson +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Kyle Busch +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
Bubba Wallace +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
Austin Cindric +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Tyler Reddick +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Chris Buescher +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Daniel Suárez +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Austin Dillon +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Aric Almirola +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Alex Bowman +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Chase Briscoe +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)
Martin Truex Jr. +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)
Kevin Harvick +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)
Austin Hill +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Erik Jones +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)

[RELATED: Complete odds list]

Keselowski is tied with Hall of Famers Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon on Talladega’s all-time wins list (six), four behind Dale Earnhardt Sr.

In addition to his 2020 GEICO victory, Blaney’s most recent win was at the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona on Aug. 28, 2021. 

What about Kyle Larson (+1500), the 2021 NASCAR Cup series champion who has won two of the past three races, including last week’s NOCO 400?

Larson has won pretty much everywhere on the NASCAR circuit — except Talladega. Larson has 21 NASCAR Cup Series wins, including the 2021 Coca-Cola 600 and was part of the quartet of drivers who won the 2015 24 Hours of Daytona.

Larson finished a GEICO career-best fourth last year, ending a rough stretch of Talladega that saw him place between 24th and 40th in five out of six Talladega races between 2018-21.

Don’t forget about veteran Denny Hamlin (+1400), a three-time Daytona 500 winner (2016, 2019, 2020). Hamlin has won twice at Talladega, the YellaWood 500 in 2020 and the Aaron’s 499 in 2014. Hamlin has placed in the top 11 in nine of his past 13 Talladega races.

Josh Sims, co-host of FOX’s NASCAR Race Hub, said he likes Logano to make a strong run at the GEICO. Logano is coming off a second-place showing at the NOCO 400 last week at Martinsville Speedway in Virginia.

“When it comes to superspeedways, Penske is always good and Logano is always really good,” Sims said. “I know they’ve been up and down a little, but in superspeedway racing, Joey Logano and Team Penske are usually one of the teams to beat.”

PICK: Joey Logano (+1000 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $110 total) to win GEICO 500

Here are the winners of the past 10 GEICO 500s:

2022: Ross Chastain
2021: Brad Keselowski
2020: Ryan Blaney
2019: Chase Elliott
2018: Joey Logano 
2017: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
2016: Brad Keselowski
2015: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2014: Denny Hamlin
2013: David Ragan

So who do you have burning rubber after Sunday’s GEICO 500? Head over to FOX Bet for all your sports wagers now!

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