NASCAR playoffs: Breaking down the Round of 8 drivers

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Martin Truex Jr. has not finished in the top 15 in any playoff race this year. 

Kyle Larson didn’t post a top-10 in the second round.

Those two former Cup champions know that type of performance will end their seasons in the Round of 8, NASCAR’s version of a semifinal round.

“That won’t get us through the next one,” Truex said. “The next one, you’ve got to be running up front.”

In cutting the field from eight to four, it is possible only one spot could be available on points after races at Las Vegas, Homestead and Martinsville. Last year, Denny Hamlin failed to advance out of the round despite finishes of fifth, seventh and fifth.

A win in the round vaults any of the eight drivers into being among the four drivers vying for the championship Nov. 5 at Phoenix Raceway. Depending on how many playoff drivers win will determine how many spots are available on points.

Here is the outlook for the eight drivers remaining and how they have performed at these tracks. Las Vegas and Martinsville played host to Cup races earlier this year while the series makes only one trip per season to Homestead.

William Byron (+20 on 5th)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet

Byron won at Las Vegas in the spring, and he would love nothing more than to repeat at a track where he was 13th in the playoff race a year ago. He was 12th at Homestead and seventh at Martinsville in the 2022 playoffs, failing to make the final round. He was 23rd at Martinsville in the spring. With six wins this year, he has a little bit of a cushion and is coming off a round where he finished first, second and second. He has all the momentum and all the speed. Whether he advances likely will come down to execution. 

Martin Truex Jr. (+15)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota

Truex rode his 36 playoff points to advance to this round, but he doesn’t have a big enough cushion to make the championship round. The tracks in this round have recently been very good for him but that might not even be good enough. He was seventh in the last two races at Las Vegas, he was sixth at Homestead last year and has a third and 20th in his last two Martinsville starts.

Denny Hamlin (+11)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota

As mentioned above, Hamlin failed to get out of the round after finishes of fifth at Vegas, seventh at Homestead and fifth at Martinsville. But the only reason he didn’t advance was because of Ross Chastain’s unbelievable “Hail Melon” move at the end of Martinsville. Hamlin was 11th at Vegas and fourth at Martinsville earlier this year. 

Kyle Larson (+3)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet

Larson heads to a round where he should have great confidence in making it to the Championship 4. He was 35th at Las Vegas last year (where he got into Bubba Wallace and then Wallace took him out) but was second there in the spring. He won in 2022 at Homestead, one of his best tracks. And his last two finishes at Martinsville were a win in the spring and second a year ago. 

Chris Buescher (-3 on 4th)
RFK Racing No. 17 Ford

Buescher has never made it out of the first round let alone the second, so he’s got to feel good about just being in the Round of 8. What wouldn’t make him feel good? In the five Next Gen races at tracks in this round, his best finish is 13th. He has had a career year with three victories, and he’ll need some more career moments to likely get out of the round.

Christopher Bell (-8)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota

Bell needed a walk-off victory at Martinsville last year to advance to the final round as he was 34th at Las Vegas and 11th at Homestead. But that Vegas result doesn’t tell the whole story, as he was an innocent victim in the Wallace-Larson affair. Bell was fifth in the spring at Las Vegas but 16th at Martinsville. He is the only driver in the final round with just one win this year. Still, don’t count him out.

Tyler Reddick (-8)
23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota

Reddick seems to be running well at the right time, but will it last? He seems optimistic about the upcoming tracks, but he hasn’t had great experiences at them in recent visits. He was involved in an accident at Homestead last year and then had to get out of the car at Martinsville because he wasn’t feeling well during the race. While he was sixth at Las Vegas a year ago, he was 15th in the spring. And at Martinsville in the spring, he had a fast car but wound up 22nd.

Ryan Blaney (-10)
Team Penske No. 12 Ford

Blaney blames himself for mistakes at Las Vegas (where he finished 28th) and Homestead (17th) a year ago as he got loose and crashed at Vegas and then spun exiting pit road at Homestead. A third at Martinsville wasn’t enough for him to advance. But more concerning than those mistakes a year ago were that he was 13th at Vegas earlier this year and seventh at Martinsville. He also didn’t score stage points in those races earlier this year. He’ll need to find some speed. 

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass, and sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass.

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