NASCAR Playoff Picture: Who's in, who's on the bubble, who must win

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LONG POND, Pa. — It’s that time of year when every finish for every driver without a win is scrutinized as it could determine whether or not the driver makes the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

As Ross Chastain put it as he stood outside the Pocono Raceway medical center following a race that ended early for him with a crash:

“It’s math, so [this finish] is not going to help,” Chastain said.

Following Pocono, five races remain to set the playoff field: Indianapolis, Richmond, Michigan, Daytona and Darlington.

The NASCAR playoffs consist of 16 drivers — the regular-season champion and then the next 15 drivers ranked by wins with ties broken by points.

With the top-five drivers in the standings all having at least one victory, the regular-season champion most likely will be one of the winners. Twelve drivers have won this year, meaning up to four spots could be available on points. In the unlikely scenario where there are five new winners in the final five regular-season races (meaning 17 drivers would have won during the regular season), the winner with the fewest regular-season points would miss the playoffs.

So who’s in, who’s on the bubble and who is at win-at-all-costs?

There are seven drivers who are locked in thanks to multiple wins or having one win and their points position: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick.

There are another three drivers with one win that for all intents and purposes are locked in no matter if there are five new winners: Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman and Joey Logano. 

Daniel Suarez and Austin Cindric have a win and if there are five new winners, could be battling for the last spot. Suarez is 28 points ahead of Cindric.

But history tells us that all of those drivers with a win will be locked in — there has not been a season where there have been more winners than playoff spots.

So let’s get to the points:

There are five winless drivers who would be battling for the current four spots available solely on points.

Martin Truex Jr. is in the best position with a 70-point edge on Ty Gibbs. Gibbs is 23 points ahead of Chris Buescher, who is 17 points ahead of Ross Chastain. Bubba Wallace is the top driver currently on the outside looking in at 27 points behind Chastain.

But anyone other than Truex can’t feel all that safe. If there is just one upset winner, then Gibbs, Buescher and Chastain — all separated by just 40 points with five races left — would likely be battling for the final two spots.

Gibbs, Buescher and Chastain all said prior to Pocono that they weren’t going to race focused on what the others are doing.

Chastain said he lets crew chief Phil Surgen figure all that out.

“They tell me to pit or they tell me to stay out,” Chastain said. “Rarely do I make those calls.”

Gibbs saw a promising day at Pocono where he won the pole end in a 27th-place finish after an engine failure.

“We play it smart, but I think let’s just go win because that takes care of everything at the end of the day,” Gibbs said. “We’re really strong and every week I feel like we’ve been really fast. … It would be different if we were not running good consistently and I was doing a horrible job.

“We’re doing a good job and have got to be patient and look at the big picture — hopefully.”

Buescher was in a similar position last year and won three of the final four regular-season races.

“What we’ll do is the more beneficial side of it — if somebody has an issue on the day, take note of that, something’s not going right, know that,” Buescher said. “We’ve had to do that once already, where you end up with everyone you’re racing around has had some bad luck. And it’s about making sure you don’t turn your decent day into a bad luck day as well.”

Just three weeks ago, Buescher felt in a pretty good spot on points. And then Logano, who was then the last driver who would have gotten in on points, won in a five-overtime race at Nashville where he did not have the fastest car. The following week at the Chicago street course, Bowman, who was then the last driver who would have gotten in on points, snagged the victory.

“It’s been a wild few weeks for sure,” Buescher said. “Not just on who is winning these things, but the races themselves have been a little bit of chaos along the way. … It’s about us controlling what we can control and trying to make our destiny.”

As far as making his own destiny, Wallace must view his situation as a must-win considering if there is one new winner from behind him in the standings, he’d have virtually no chance to make it on points.

There are 17 other playoff-eligible drivers who pretty much face must-win situations: Chase Briscoe, Kyle Busch, Todd Gilliland, Josh Berry, Michael McDowell, Carson Hocevar, Noah Gragson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones, Ryan Preece, Daniel Hemric, Justin Haley, Corey LaJoie, John Hunter Nemechek, Austin Dillon, Harrison Burton and Zane Smith.

The two-time Cup champion Busch is the driver most would look at having the ability to win, although he is mired in a slump that has lasted a couple of months, a combination of not-the-fastest vehicles and horrible luck.

McDowell, Stenhouse, Jones, Haley and Dillon have all won Cup races at Daytona in their careers, and the regular season ends at one of Jones’ best tracks.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.

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