Championship 4 breakdown: Why each driver will, won't win NASCAR crown at Phoenix

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Until last year, the winner of the championship race was one of the four drivers eligible for the NASCAR Cup Series title.

Last year, Ross Chastain won the season finale while not one of the Championship 4 as Ryan Blaney finished second on his way to the championship on the 1-mile Phoenix oval.

Blaney is back to defend his title this year after a walk-off moment Sunday at Martinsville Speedway vaulted him into the Championship 4. The four drivers who race at Phoenix (among the rest of the non-championship eligible drivers) with the best of those four being crowned the champion.

All four of the drivers this year — Blaney, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick and William Byron — have three wins apiece. None have led more than 600 laps this year.

The three drivers who combined to lead 3,632 laps (nearly 40 percent) — Kyle Larson (six wins), Christopher Bell (three wins) and Denny Hamlin (three wins) — were all eliminated at Martinsville, leaving this championship even more wide open.

“I never look at favorites when it gets to the Champ 4 because everyone is there for a reason, and all teams are really fast,” Blaney said. “They can be fast no matter what, any given weekend, any given track.”

Here’s a breakdown of the four drivers with analysis of why each can win the title — and why each won’t. They are listed in order of car number: 

Ryan Blaney, Team Penske No. 12 Ford

2024 season: 3 wins (Iowa, Pocono, Martinsville-2), 11 top-5s, 1 pole, 555 laps led

Next Gen Phoenix finishes: Mar2024-5th; Nov2023-2nd; Mar2023-2nd; Nov2022-2nd; Mar2022-4th

Championship 4 experience: 2nd appearance. 2023-Finished 1st

Why Blaney Will Win: He did it before and he can do it again. Last year, Blaney used a Martinsville victory to propel him into the championship and he has completed one-half of that equation this year. Even bigger is that his Martinsville victory came a week after Reddick passed him on the final lap at Homestead. And look at those finishes at Phoenix. He has led more laps in the Next Gen car than any other driver at Phoenix, and he already has two wins this year at tracks 1-mile or shorter.

Why Blaney Won’t Win: No driver has gone back-to-back in the playoff elimination area (which started in 2014); the last driver to defend his title was Jimmie Johnson, who won five consecutive championships from 2006-2010. And which Blaney will be racing at the finish? The driver who saw that win slip away at Homestead or the driver who triumphed at Martinsville?

Joey Logano, Team Penske No. 22 Ford

2024 season: 3 wins (Nashville, Atlanta-2, Veags-2), 6 top-5s, 3 poles, 307 laps led

Next Gen Phoenix finishes: Mar2024-34th; Nov2023-18th; Mar2023-11th; Nov2022-1st; Mar2022-8th

Championship 4 history: 6th appearance. 2014-Finished 4th, 2016-2nd, 2018-1st, 2020-3rd, 2022-1st

Why Logano Will Win: Logano has been on cruise control the past two weeks as he won at Las Vegas and didn’t have to worry about his Homestead and Martinsville finishes. He’s had no pressure. He’ll be fresh. And then there’s that even-year thing — this is his sixth championship appearance, with them all coming in even years. But, seriously, the dude seems to perform best when it matters most. And he hates to lose.

Why Logano Won’t Win: If Logano didn’t already have two Cup titles, he would be totally counted out already. He finished 15th in the regular-season points. He won a five-overtime race at Nashville just to get into the playoffs. He won a drafting race at Atlanta and then used a fuel-mileage strategy to win at Las Vegas. Of any of the drivers in the Champ 4, he’d be the hardest sell as having a “championship” year. You know what? He doesn’t care.

William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet

2024 season: 3 wins (Daytona-1, Austin, Martinsville-1), 12 top-5s, 1 pole, 338 laps led

Next Gen Phoenix finishes: Mar2024-18th; Nov2023-4th; Mar2023-1st; Nov2022-6th; Mar2022-18th

Championship 4 history: 2nd appearance. 2023-Finished 3rd

Why Byron Will Win: Byron has run the most laps in the Next Gen car at Phoenix in the top-5 than any other driver. And it’s not even close as he has run in the top-5 for 1,058 laps — the next best among these four is Blaney (749). Byron won there in March 2023 and he seems comfortable there. He is the only Hendrick driver to make it to the championship round, so he’ll have a full effort from that organization.

Why Byron Won’t Win: While he has run in the top 5 for 1,058 laps in the Next Gen car at Phoenix, only 171 of those laps were actually in the lead. He hasn’t won since April as he carries a 27-race winless streak into the championship race. He knows he’ll be very good. The problem is he doesn’t know if he’ll be great.

Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota

2024 season: 3 wins (Talladega-1, Michigan, Homestead), 12 top-5s, 3 poles, 597 laps led

Next Gen Phoenix finishes: Mar2024-10th; Nov2023-22nd; Mar2023-3rd; Nov2022-23rd; Mar2022-3rd

Championship 4 history: 1st appearance

Why Reddick Will Win: Reddick has led more laps this year than any other driver in the Champ 4. He was the regular-season champion and has shown the ability to gut out good runs when he needs them the most. Plus, he will probably have co-owner Michael Jordan there rooting him on. No pressure. 

Why Reddick Won’t Win: This will be Reddick’s first trip to the Champ 4 as well as the first trip for his crew chief, Billy Scott. Reddick did win two Xfinity titles in this format, but Cup is a different level. Phoenix is not one of his better tracks and all of his wins this year have come at tracks 1.5 miles in length or greater.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.

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